Despite meat alternatives forecast to be the fastest growing food sector globally to 2025, its projected value gain is much smaller on a global scale and in Australia, GlobalData says.
While the alternative proteins sector is set to be the only global food industry to reach double digit value growth between 2020-2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.7 per cent, it is only expected to gain $7 billion over the five-year period, reaching $15.3 billion by 2025 due to coming from a small base.
It is a similar story for Australia. Food & Drink associate analyst at GlobalData Amira Freyer-Elgendy told Food & Drink Business that in terms of sheer value gain across 2020-2025, Australasia sits at a comfortable $4.6 billion for meat ($3.9 billion for Australia specifically), while meat alternatives will generate $0.07 billion/$77.5 million in the region ($0.07 billion/$61 million).
“When it comes to growth, meat alternatives outdo the traditional sector. The Australasian meat market is set to growth annually across 2020-2025 with a CAGR of 3.8 per cent (same for Australia) and meat alternatives are registering near double the growth with 7.0 per cent (6.5 per cent for Australia).
“Again, the trend of a strong growth factor but relatively small value gain persists at a more regional level for meat alternatives,” she said.
Freyer-Elgendy said it was clear meat substitutes would not overtake traditional meat in the next five years. It is forecast the traditional meat sector will gain $475 billion to reach $2.2 trillion by 2025.
This echoes comments from v2food CEO Nick Hazell on the launch if the company’s plant-based chicken range. “For every extra dollar earned in a developing market, it will be spent on meat,” Hazell told Food & Drink Business.
“There needs to be alternatives that have price parity or are cheaper, tastier, and more nutritious,” he said.
Freyer-Elgendy said, “It’s easy to get swept up in the tremendous, off-the-chart growth rates we have been seeing for meat alternatives, essentially running circles around all other categories.”
One of the factors is while innovative technologies like 3D printing, cell cultured processes and precision fermentation are promising, they are still in their infancy.
“Meat alternatives are the clear stand out performer with double digit growth, but to become one of the top value gainers, the product has to be an ‘everyday’ staple food.
“Meat, bakery goods and dairy are often consumed daily and are a built-in part of shoppers’ routines worldwide. Getting to that level is difficult, especially for a category that is still finding its feet,” Freyer-Elgendy said.
Similarly, the market is showing a shift to a flexitarian diet with more plant-based consumption, but GlobalData’s Q2 2021 consumer survey revealed more than a third (35 per cent) of global consumers do not consume plant-based meat alternatives.
“Meat alternatives are appealing to shoppers beyond the vegan or vegetarian audience, as curiosity, health and ethics are driving consumers to try it. However, a sizeable portion of people still feel wary about meat alternatives.
“Given the innovation and investment this segment is seeing, I do believe in the next ten years meat alternatives will become a strong option for the everyday shopper and consumers will gain familiarity and trust in time,” Freyer-Elgendy said.
Interested in alternative proteins? Listen to our podcast episodes on the topic here or through your prefered podcast platform:
Cultured Meat with Vow CEO Tim Noakesmith
Food Futurist Tony Hunter, Part II
Food Futurist Tony Hunter, Part I
Vegan chocolate and digital assets with Loving Earth co-founder Scott Fry
Synthetic biology with Main Sequence director Phil Morle
Commercialising algae with CEO Nusqe Spanton
State of the plant-based industry with Karen Job
Plant protein pioneer ProForm Foods with CEO Matt Dunn
Pure Foods Tasmania and the rise of plant-based products with CEO Michael Cooper
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