Continued retail turnover growth is being predicted in Australia, but with a levelling out over the coming months of 2017, according to the October 2017 edition of the quarterly AFGC CHEP Retail Index.
The flattening off follows on from the pickup in spending growth experienced in the first half of the year, according to the index, a lead indicator based on transactional data from CHEP pallet movements and analysis by Deloitte.
The Index predicts a 3.3 per cent year-on-year retail turnover growth to the month of September 2017, trending relatively flat to 3.4 per cent year-on-year for the month of November. This is down from the slightly higher 3.8 per cent growth recorded year-on-year for June and August 2017.
On a quarterly basis, it predicts 3 per cent year-on-year growth to the September quarter trending to 3.3 per cent year-on-year for the December quarter.
“The latest Index, along with commentary from Deloitte, shows that although we continue to see retail growth, the brakes will be reapplied slightly leading into Christmas,”Australian Food and Grocery Council CEO Tanya Barden said.
“This follows the modest but welcome pick-up in the first half of the year. Financial risks are being felt more acutely by many consumers, which is affecting their sentiment and spending. Retail price growth has been very slow at around one per cent over the year.”
