Mainstream-priced food and grocery brands are losing ground as consumers trade down to value or up to premium, according to NIQ’s Consumer Outlook: Guide to 2027.
Across 26 measured markets, the mainstream tier’s share of global CPG value sales fell one percentage point to 43 per cent in the year to 14 June 2026, while the discount tier gained 0.3 points to 18 per cent and premium gained 0.6 points to 40 per cent. NIQ estimates more than US$23 billion in value share has moved away from mainstream products.
The report draws on a survey of more than 21,000 consumers in 31 countries, including Australia, alongside NIQ’s retail and household panel data.
Sixty-seven per cent of consumers said they would rather save money if a product was not clearly better, while 56 per cent said that if they were going to spend more, they would choose something that was clearly premium. Fifty-five per cent said mid-range options needed a clear reason to be chosen over cheaper or premium alternatives.
Food prices top concerns
Rising food prices were the top concern for consumers globally, cited by 31 per cent, up 1.5 points on a year earlier, ahead of utility bills (20 per cent) and economic downturn (17 per cent). Thirty-four per cent of consumers said their household was financially worse off than a year ago, up from 32.2 per cent.
Global CPG prices rose 2.4 per cent in the year to May 2026, ranging from 0.5 per cent in Asia Pacific to 4.6 per cent in Latin America. NIQ said a basket of goods that cost US$100 in 2024 now costs about US$105.
Snacks, alcohol and frozen under pressure
Asked how they expected to change spending over the next 12 months, more consumers planned to cut back than increase spending in most food and beverage categories. On a net basis, snacks and confectionery recorded the weakest intentions at minus 28, followed by alcohol (minus 26), in-store prepared meals and meal kits (minus 23), frozen food (minus 16), dry and canned grocery (minus 10), non-alcoholic beverages (minus 8) and dairy (minus 3).
Fresh produce (plus 14) and fresh meat (plus 1) were the only food categories with net positive spending intentions. Out-of-home dining recorded minus 31 and food delivery minus 27.
The most common saving strategies were shopping more at discount stores (37 per cent), switching to lower-priced options including private label (34 per cent), and stopping some purchases to focus on essentials (32 per cent). Nearly every saving strategy measured gained ground on the previous year.
Health rivals price
Healthy and natural attributes ranked almost level with price as the most important purchase factor, nominated by 15.1 per cent of consumers against 15.3 per cent for affordability. Quality and performance (34 per cent) ranked ahead of affordable pricing (31 per cent) in deciding whether a grocery purchase was worth it.
Willingness to pay more for fresh products without preservatives ranged from 75 per cent among financially secure consumers to 54 per cent among those under financial pressure. For ingredient and supply chain transparency, the gap was 65 per cent to 38 per cent.
Eleven per cent of consumers globally said they were taking a GLP-1 medication. Forty-eight per cent expect the medications to change how they shop for food, beverages and health products. In the US, unit sales of products with hydration claims grew 37 per cent among GLP-1 users for weight loss, against 2 per cent among non-users. Products claiming to provide energy grew 33 per cent (15 per cent for non-users), brain health 29 per cent (19 per cent) and sugar-conscious 12 per cent (1 per cent).
AI shapes discovery
Fifty-five per cent of consumers said AI recommendations had influenced their household and grocery purchases at least sometimes, and 27 per cent said they used AI tools to help decide what to buy. NIQ said manufacturers would need accurate, structured product data to be surfaced by AI shopping systems.
“Consumers are no longer responding to disruption as a temporary condition,” NIQ President, Global Customer Organization, Laura McCullough, said.
