More than seven million Australian adults could be using GLP-1 medicines by 2036, and the packaged categories most exposed are already recording double-digit declines among current users, according to new research from EY.
The report, The new appetite, pairs an EY Studio+ survey of 9202 Australian adults conducted in January and February 2026 with EY-Parthenon modelling of adoption over the next decade. One in 10 adults report currently using a GLP-1 medicine; a further three per cent have used one previously, and 23 per cent would consider it.
Among current users, net consumption of sweet snacks and confectionery is down 46 per cent. Alcoholic beverages are down 41 per cent, savoury snacks and baked goods down 40 per cent each, and packaged and processed foods and soft drinks down 35 per cent each.
The same shoppers are buying more elsewhere. Fresh fruit and vegetables are up a net 44 per cent, specialty and health foods 26 per cent, protein foods 20 per cent, and low or no sugar non-alcoholic beverages 14 per cent.
EY Regional Consumer Products & Retail Leader, Oceania, Lisa Nijssen-Smith, told Food & Drink Business that the shift is about more than people buying less.
“For supermarkets and food manufacturers, the shift is about the mix of products changing as consumers become more selective about what they eat and drink.
“GLP-1 users are becoming more deliberate about what earns a place in the shopping basket. They are buying more fresh, protein-rich and health-oriented foods, and less alcohol, snacks and processed products,” Lisa Nijssen-Smith said.
Growth without volume
The report frames the commercial problem in blunt terms for manufacturers: “If millions of consumers begin eating less, growth will not come from volume. It will come from redefining value per bite.”
That points to reformulation and pack architecture rather than range extension. EY nominates six areas of product response: portion-controlled formats and higher nutrient density per serve; protein-forward reformulation of existing lines; fresh and minimally processed positioning; low and zero-sugar and functional beverages; lower-sugar, reduced-additive formulations with clearer nutritional communication; and premium, occasional treat formats.
On sweet snacks, the report is specific about the format opportunity, naming mini packs, controlled multipacks and individually wrapped treats in the 80 to 120 calorie range. Among GLP-1 users who still buy sweet snacks, health benefits (51 per cent) and ingredients (36 per cent) outrank price (30 per cent) and brand (26 per cent) as purchase drivers, with impulse at 21 per cent.
Savoury snacking has not disappeared but has narrowed. Very frequent savoury snacking, more than five times a week, falls by more than 80 per cent among GLP-1 users. When users do substitute, they move to fruit and vegetables (56 per cent), healthy snacks (40 per cent) and protein and nuts (33 per cent), rather than to a rival brand in the same category.
Beverages and the drinks mix
Water now dominates non-alcoholic beverage choice among GLP-1 users at 44 per cent, ahead of tea and coffee at 14 per cent and soft drinks at 11 per cent. On soft drink labelling, sugar free leads preference at 54 per cent, followed by low or reduced sugar at 40 per cent and low or reduced calorie at 32 per cent.
In alcohol, beer records the largest fall in stated preference at 11 percentage points, followed by wine at nine points, ready-to-drink at three and spirits at one. Non-alcoholic beer gains six points and non-alcoholic wine five, while the share saying they do not drink at all rises 12 points.
Three pathways, and the PBS
EY-Parthenon modelled three adoption scenarios to 2035. Under the status quo, adoption grows at about 0.4 per cent a year and plateaus near 17.1 per cent of adults. A policy reform scenario, in which GLP-1 medicines for weight loss are approved for the PBS and released in pill format, reaches 24.1 per cent. The highest case, in which PBS approval extends to weight loss and comorbidities such as hypertension and heart disease and drop-off rates fall, reaches 30.1 per cent, or more than seven million adults.
Format is a live variable. More than half of surveyed Australians (57 per cent) said they would prefer a pill-based option, against 17 per cent preferring a weekly injection.
The household multiplier
The effect extends past the person holding the prescription. More than half of GLP-1 users (51 per cent) said changes to their food purchasing had influenced what others in their household eat, which matters because users skew toward working-age adults aged 25 to 44 in higher-income households, the cohort most likely to be doing the main grocery shop.
The habits also appear to outlast the treatment. Of users who stopped, many continued buying more fresh produce, protein and non-alcoholic drinks, and fewer soft drinks, snacks and alcohol. Sixty-nine per cent said they were likely to restart.
For food service, dining out falls 44 per cent overall, but the decline is concentrated in quick service and fast food, down 15 percentage points, and takeaway and delivery, down eight. Cafes and coffee shops gain six points, bars, pubs and licensed venues four, and full-service restaurants three.
“Businesses should be thinking now about how changing appetites could affect demand, and where their products and services fit in a shifting consumer landscape,” Nijssen-Smith said.
