In a FY26 trading update, Bubs Australia forecasts revenue of $105–115 million but warns that reported EBITDA could land anywhere from –$2 million to +$2 million.
The infant nutrition company attributed the earnings squeeze to a range of external factors: evolving regulatory requirements, product availability constraints, geopolitical disruption in the Middle East, and increased air freight costs incurred to support re-stocking, particularly in the United States.
Underlying EBITDA is expected to come in at $4–8 million, which the company says better reflects the business's operating performance absent those one-off headwinds.
CEO and MD, Joe Coote, said the business had taken a deliberate approach to supply chain management in a more complex environment.
“That has meant carrying additional costs in the short term, but it has also allowed us to move quickly and position the business to meet our growth ambitions.”
The US remains central to Bubs’ strategy. The company said air freight to support American re-stocking is now winding down and that it remains on track to achieve ranging in more than 10,000 stores by July 2026.
Bubs also confirmed its FDA review is progressing to its final stages, with engagement described as positive.
Coote said the company’s balance sheet remains strong, giving it flexibility to manage near-term pressures while continuing to invest in distribution expansion and brand activation.
